Final Four Preview, But Not Predictions

The three most talented volleyball players in Pitt history walked into the press room with their answers ready.

Senior setter Rachel Fairbanks and star hitters Olivia Babcock and Torrey Stafford were fresh off practice in Louisville's KFC Yum! Center. While they ran their drills, all three were named first-team All-Americans, making Pitt the only team in the nation with three first-teamers. The task at hand for them is a major one: beat arch-rival Louisville for a third time this year (6:30 PM Eastern on ESPN), and do it in their home arena, to reach the Pitt program's first ever National Championship.

Just don’t ask them again if they think it's hard to beat a team three times in one year.

“It’s hard to beat a team once,” Fairbanks said. “It’s hard to beat a team twice.”

“I think it's hard to beat Louisville period,” Stafford added.

Is it intimidating to be playing a de facto road game in the Final Four? Well, they’ll remind you they just pulled off four-set win a few weeks ago in this same arena. This will be the Panthers' third match at 'the Yum' in 15 months.

“It's our second home,” Stafford said.

Pitt faced this situation a year ago, but for Babcock and Stafford in particular it was an unfamiliar setting -- a new-to-them arena in Tampa and their first Final Four mere months into their freshman year of college.

“Last year, everyone tries to prepare you for it, but when you actually get there, you’re still overwhelmed,” Babcock said. “It’s all still new to you, so you’re kind of distracted by the outside noise... At this point we’re no longer new to this.”

“Yeah, we're not new to this, we're true to this,” Stafford interjected in a rhyme (prompting a laugh and a ‘shut up’ from Babcock). “We just have the experience from last year, so we know what to expect.”

What they should expect is an opponent that relishes the opportunity for revenge. Sure, Pitt has beaten the Cardinals in four straight matches going back to last season. But those weren't in the Final Four, certainly not the Final Four that the Cards have been anticipating since the NCAA awarded the hosting privileges for this championship to them way back in 2020.

“Both teams like to take big rips, I don’t think either team tips a ton,” Pitt head coach Dan Fisher said. “They made us uncomfortable in certain areas. The rivalry is probably a little bit more for the fans, but the competition has definitely made us both better.”

Fisher and the players had all the answers on Wednesday. If the same is true on Thursday and Sunday, Pitt has its best chance yet to be champions.

Thanks for reading Bandwagoner's Guide to Pitt Volleyball! I may only have one or two posts left before I put this newsletter to bed, but I greatly appreciate you checking it out.

As usual, I don’t like to make predictions in this space, so here is a look at each of the teams in this Final Four — along with some odds from the good folks at Evollve.

Pitt Panthers

The Panthers get another bite of the apple with its fourth straight Final Four, and a fourth opportunity for Fairbanks to quarterback a championship team. It’s the most complete Pitt team yet, and the kind of attack that no other tournament team wants to face. They’ve been #1 in the country since September. They were the #1 overall seed in the tournament. If they can prove that their passing struggles last week were a mere hiccup, it’s the ultimate opportunity to raise the trophy.

• Best Player: Olivia Babcock, sophomore right side
• All-Americans: Babcock (1st Team), sophomore outside hitter Torrey Stafford (1st Team), senior setter Rachel Fairbanks (1st Team), junior middle Bre Kelley (2nd Team)
• Head Coach: Dan Fisher, 12th season at Pitt
• National Titles: Zero
• Championship Odds via Evollve: 41.8%

How Pitt Could Win the National Championship: Serve well and pass well. Pitt has more weapons than any other team in the nation (and a #1 hitting percentage at .332), but that was also true last year. So what’s different this year? They’re serving better (and they have Bre Kelley, but let’s focus on the serving). Pitt had five of the 25 best servers in the country this season — and since volleyball only has six rotations, that’s pretty damn good. Then there’s passing. Oregon exposed Pitt in serve-receive when the Ducks took it to five sets in the Sweet 16. Other teams will try to follow the Oregon playbook; Pitt needs to slam that book shut.

Louisville Cardinals

We’ll see if the Cardinals feel the pressure of playing here in L’ville. “Pretty surreal to be in your hometown in the Final Four,” said head coach Dani Busboom Kelly. As it happens, the floor of the KFC Yum! Center was the site of what could’ve been the biggest tournament upset in years — Northern Iowa had multiple chances to eliminate the Cards two weeks ago, but missed serves on two match points and two deuce points in the fifth set. The Cardinals survived and turned things around last weekend in regionals to defeat Purdue and Stanford.

• Best Player: Elena Scott, senior libero
• All-Americans: Scott (1st Team), graduate outside hitter Anna DeBeer (2nd Team), junior middle Cara Cresse (Honorable Mention), senior outside hitter Charitie Luper (Honorable Mention)
• Head Coach: Dani Busboom Kelly, 8th season at L’ville
• National Titles: Zero (one appearance, 2022)
• Championship Odds: 14.4%

How Pitt Could Beat Louisville: Slow down Anna DeBeer. How do you do that? “I wish I knew,” Fisher said. “What makes her great is even if there’s a well-formed block, she can still find a way off it a lot of times.” DeBeer has bedeviled the Panthers for years and totaled 22 kills in a five-setter at the Petersen Events Center earlier this season, but if she can be contained, Pitt will have the upper hand.

How Louisville Could Win the National Championship: Home cooking at the Yum! I know I’ve been downplaying the importance of this Final Four being played at the KFC Yum! Center. In truth, it’s hard to predict what the effect will be — this is the first time a Final Four team will play in one of its home arenas since UCLA won the title at Pauley Pavilion in 1991.1 If Louisville’s tough defense fires up the crowd with some big blocks (the Cards are #1 in the nation with 3.1 blocks per set) and clutch digs, the momentum could be tough to stop.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Here’s how deep Nebraska is: they brought in former Big Ten Player of the Year Taylor Landfair this offseason, and she is *FOURTH* on the team in kills per set behind Harper Murray on the left side, Merritt Beason on the right side, and Andi Jackson in the middle constantly bringing the heat.

• Best Player: Lexi Rodriguez, senior libero
• All-Americans: Rodriguez (1st Team), sophomore middle Andi Jackson (1st Team), sophomore outside hitter Harper Murray (2nd Team), sophomore setter Bergen Reilly (2nd Team)
• Head Coach: John Cook, 25th season at Nebraska
• National Titles: Five (most recent - 2017)
• Championship Odds: 40.2%

How Pitt Could Beat Nebraska: Play a complete game. Last year in the Final Four, Nebraska laid the hammer down right away, tallying eight blocks in the first set. Pitt made a strong comeback late in the second set, fighting off three set points, but ultimately lost 25-23. Goose was cooked. Nebraska held Pitt to .137 hitting in the sweep. Pitt will have to ride its stronger serve this time around to keep Nebraska off balance and find the openings to terminate. Anything less won’t be worthy of a National Championship.

How Nebraska Could Win The National Championship: Suffocate teams defensively. Led by National Player of the Year finalist libero Lexi Rodriguez, the Huskers mop up the floor, extend rallies and give star setter Bergen Reilly more chances to find a big arm that will score. It’s maddening if you’re a fan of the opposing team, but it’s old-fashioned Nebraska Volleyball for the fans in red.

Penn State Nittany Lions

There’s a cliche about sports with elimination brackets that you want to be peaking at the right time. Penn State might be doing just that. Yes, every team still alive is on a winning streak, but in the past few weeks the Nittany Lions handed Nebraska its first loss since September 3rd and Creighton its first loss since September 15. Here’s another cliche: to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best. While both of those wins were in the white-out loudhouse of Rec Hall, Penn State has the opportunity to show it can win big matches away from Happy Valley.

• Best Player: Jess Mruzik, graduate outside hitter

• All-Americans: Mruzik (1st Team), freshman setter Izzy Starck (2nd Team), graduate outside hitter Camryn Hannah (Honorable Mention), senior middle Taylor Trammell (Honorable Mention)

• Head Coach: Katie Schumacher-Cawley, 3rd season at PSU2

• National Titles: Seven (most recent - 2014)

• Championship Odds: 3.6%

How Pitt Could Beat Penn State: Terminate anywhere close to the level they did when they swept Penn State in September. Pitt outhit PSU .385 to .204 for a fairly easy victory, one in which they held Mruzik to just seven kills. But we’ve learned the lesson from the Pitt-Oregon rematch: playing a team early in the season isn’t the same as playing a team in the tournament. National Freshman of the Year Izzy Starck in particular has developed a lot since September — Pitt needs to serve well to keep Penn State out of system and limit Starck’s options.

How Penn State Could Win the National Championship: Strong transition defense. In Penn State’s two biggest wins of the season, the upset over Nebraska and the Elite Eight win over Creighton, the Nittany Lions did phenomenal work keeping the ball off the floor. Nebraska hit for a season-low .154 in the four-set loss (albeit one in which the Huskers outscored Penn State 91-89). Creighton hit for a season-low .141 last Sunday as Norah Sis totaled just eight kills (with eight errors) over five sets.

One Final Thought

“Coming back from Final Fours in the past to now, we're so hungry for more. And we just want to keep coming back, because we really think that we can make it past [the National Semifinal], and I think this is the team that's going to do it.” — Olivia Babcock on SportsCenter