For a Top-4 Seed, Pitt Must Stop Playing with Fire

Bad news first: Pitt really blew it on Friday night.

Up 24-20 on Stanford in the opening set, the Panthers dropped six straight points and went down 1-0.

Up 14-11 in the final set, the Panthers dropped five straight points and lost the match.

Pitt actually outscored Stanford 110 to 102 overall, but they also had 11 set points and only won 2 of them. Chalk it up to jet lag (the match ended at 12:43 Eastern Time), give your props to Stanford's Elia Rubin for two clutch service runs, but ultimately Pitt choked.

If you can stand to watch anything from that match over again, TikTok user Matt Houlihan summarized it well:

Okay, that was the bad news.

The good news? Pitt hasn't squandered its chance for the all-important Top 4 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and hosting privileges for the first four rounds.

Stanford hurt its own odds when it followed up its five-set win over the Panthers with a home loss on Sunday to the SMU Mustangs, which combined with Pitt's win over Cal ensured that Stanford's reign alone atop the ACC lasted less than 48 hours.

So while Pitt no longer finds itself as firmly in the Top 4 as it did before, there's also no clear usurper of the throne. Combine the new AVCA coaches' poll, the committee's favored RPI and KPI, the Top 16 Media Poll and the VolleyTalk forum weekly rankings, and Pitt still finds itself in the #4 spot behind the Top 3 of Nebraska, Texas and Kentucky.

A big piece in Pitt's favor: The Panthers have 5 wins over RPI Top 10 opponents, while Stanford has just 1 (over Pitt) and Arizona State has 0.

Pitt doesn't completely control its own fate, but it can feel pretty confident in hosting through the Elite Eight if its last four regular season matches are wins, with the biggest being next Wednesday's battle with arch-rival Louisville at the Petersen Events Center. Drop that one, and you're playing with fire – much like the Panthers have done for much of the season with their seven five-setters.

Of course, "just win, baby" doesn't make for a satisfying newsletter, so let's look at other ways that the Panthers could be helped out over these final two weeks of the regular season:

Root for Stanford to lose in Louisville

It's both self-explanatory and the most likely scenario: the Cardinals beating the Cardinal.

Both Stanford and Pitt play Louisville in these closing days, with each match representing the biggest chance to bolster a résumé. A Pitt win over the Cards next Wednesday followed by a Louisville win over Stanford would be ideal.

Hope that a team takes down Kentucky early in the SEC Tournament

The revival of the SEC Tournament presents some interesting opportunities. While I don't believe there is a scenario in which Texas could fall below Pitt, there is one for Kentucky – a team that Pitt previously swept on a neutral floor in Fort Worth.

Kentucky gets a double-bye as the top seed in the SEC Tournament – playing this Sunday, Nov. 23 – and could face one of two teams that gave the Wildcats trouble in the regular season:

• Auburn took a set off them in Lexington, 25-18, a month ago. Auburn also pushed Texas to five sets less than a week ago. The Tigers are inconsistent but talented.
• Oklahoma came dangerously close to not just upsetting, but sweeping Kentucky in Lexington, winning the first two sets 25-18, 25-21 and then pushing UK to extra points in Set 3. In the end, Kentucky reverse-swept, but the Sooners tied 'em in the points battle 107-107.

We've seen in conference basketball tournaments how a team can get in a groove and upset a team that has a double-bye – I could certainly see it happen in Savannah this Sunday.

Pray that Arizona State gets upset in its last four matches.

This one seems possible but unlikely. The Sun Devils have been hotter than a summer afternoon in Tempe, going 16-1 since being swept by Texas in mid-September.

Arizona State's remaining schedule does include some teams capable of pulling off an upset that would seriously ding ASU in the metrics:

• Nov. 19 at UCF (RPI #63)
• Nov. 21 at Houston (RPI #158)
• Nov. 26 vs. Cincinnati (RPI #48)
• Nov. 29 vs. West Virginia (RPI #83)

The best chances belong to UCF this Wednesday (in Orlando) or Cincinnati – both teams that are currently on the outside looking in to the NCAA Tournament and would love to have a signature win on their résumés.

Beyond that, if you're a Pitt fan with the stomach to root for WVU, go for it on the season's final day.

For now, the Bracketologist at @VBracketology is keeping Pitt in the crucial #4 overall spot, but the Panthers need to help themselves in order to hold onto it.