This Team Can Get It Done

KANSAS CITY — The last four Decembers have followed a familiar, exhilarating, cruel drumbeat. New heights for the Pitt Volleyball program. New postseason accomplishments. Same Final Four pain.

I've traveled there to witness all of it. Loss to Nebraska in Columbus. Loss to Louisville in Nebraska. Loss to Nebraska in Tampa. Loss to Louisville IN Louisville. It's enough to make you want to use up your PTO before mid-December so you're not tempted to join again. But here I am in Kansas City!

Tonight, these Pitt Panthers can break the pattern. Texas A&M. Different school. Different shade of red. Different possibility.

Here's what I am envisioning, an admittedly non-analytical gut feeling: Pitt jumps out early. Set One victory while the Wisconsin and Kentucky fans are still beginning to file in. Set Two victory, maybe a little closer, and even if Texas A&M puts something together and blasts through Pitt’s strong block to win Set Three, the Panthers find their spots and suddenly you look up and Olivia Babcock has 30 kills and Pitt gets to 25 first in the fourth. That's it! Monkey, find some other back. Sighs of relief from Section 107. I can celebrate, and more importantly sit back and enjoy the nightcap match with a smile.

The only problem is my brain has spent too much time in anxiety about this match, going full Doctor Strange and drawing up 14,000,605 possible outcomes. I won't bore you with them all, but at least one involves an alternate reality where the Penguins actually moved here and are wondering what all of these volleyball fans are doing in their arena.

On The Other Side of the Net

I'll just give you three names to know on the Aggies' side: Kyndal Stowers. Great outside. Greater story, bouncing back from medical retirement to be in the Final Four. Logan Lednicky. Lefty Logan. International opportunities will be there; she and Babcock were the only college players to play for Team USA last summer. Ifenna Cos-Okpalla. The Brick Wall of College Station. Even before I had ever watched her play, I was accustomed to seeing her name near the top of the NCAA Blocks Per Set stats page.

The key to victory for Pitt: when Cos-Okpalla is up front, stay within yourself and get your attacks around her. She'll collect some blocks, but don't let them become runs for the Aggies. Then, get her off the service line as quickly as possible. Her ace rate (10.5%) is higher than any of Pitt's regular servers. Side out and send her off. Per Evollve, A&M hits .310 with Cos-Okpalla on the court and .262 with her off the court. That's basically the difference between hitting like Texas and hitting like Tulsa. When she's resting, that's when you can get your scoring runs.

More Gut Feelings

For whatever reason, I feel like this Pitt team has the right combination of experience and naivety. When you say "this team has lost four straight National Semifinals," that's really only true for the coaches. No current player has been out there for more than two Final Fours. And many of the top contributors to this year's team (setter Brooke Mosher, outside Marina Pezelj and middle Abbey Emch among them) are brand new to the big show.

This year’s team has lost in big arenas – the AVCA opener in Lincoln, Nebraska. They've won in big arenas – the neutral-site sweep of Kentucky. But they’re used to the bright lights and different reads of a large venue. That matters.

I don't know what's going to happen tonight (even though my lone bracket is in the top percentile of ESPN's Bracket Challenge. Flex on 'em). I do know that Olivia Babcock has been the most dominant player in the country, and I've watched her take over matches against similarly-strong opponents like Louisville and SMU, bailing Pitt out while she’s balling out. She truly is the Cheat Code.

If we were headed into a matchup against still-undefeated Nebraska, I would have an attitude of "Well it's been a great season. Upsets are possible, but let's not expect too much."

Now? Let's expect too much. Nebraska's sitting at home. Eliminated teams can't hurt you.

One Bit of History

There was a time when the National Semifinal wasn't the ceiling for Pitt. Nope, it was much lower. Before the Panthers bowed out on Final Four Thursday four straight times, they were defeated on Second Round Saturday four straight times.

• 2016: Back in the Tournament for the first time in 12 seasons, Pitt beats Dayton but falls to Penn State the next night in Rec Hall.
• 2017: Same idea. Pitt gets drawn into Penn State's subregional again, defeats VCU but loses to Penn State in a closer match.
• 2018: Pitt earns hosting duties after a magical 29-1 regular season. However, Kayla Lund is injured in the tournament-opening win over Iona and Pitt drops a five-setter to Michigan.
• 2019: Pitt gets to host again and sweeps Howard, but they draw Cincinnati and future Olympian Jordan Thompson, whose 27 kills combine with Maria Mallon's 19 kills to stun the Panthers.

While the stages weren't as big for those late-2010s teams as they are now, the burden was real. "Pitt can't get past the first weekend of the Tournament." Seems much longer ago than 2019.

Success and growth aren't linear. There are stops and starts. Leveling off. Maybe last year's team was the most talented edition of Pitt Volleyball. But the 2025 Panthers have the door open to them. They don't need to slay four years of dragons -- just beat a Texas A&M team that they're fully capable of beating.

Get yourself to the National Championship. It's time.

Well I Need More Analysis Than THAT

Because it's the Final Four, we have more reporters than ever filing stories about Pitt and every other team, but let's focus on the Pittsburgh ties:

I've been reading Abby Schnable post-Post-Gazette-strike, and she is doing phenomenal work. Matthew Scabilloni is always insightful in The Pitt News, and I'll be sorry to see him graduate from the beat. Former Pitt beat reporter Craig Meyer wrote a comprehensive look at Pitt's rise to prominence, and I would recommend it even if he hadn’t said such lovely things about this newsletter. (Thanks, Craig — check is in the mail.)

Pitt volleyball is on the verge of its long-awaited dream

Appearing in their fifth consecutive Final Four, the Panthers have as good of a chance as ever to win a national title. Can they finally break through?

The Front PorchCraig Meyer

Beyond that… well we’re only a few hours away from first serve. If you see me in KC, say hello and let me know about any of Taylor Swift’s local haunts! If you’re back in Pittsburgh, go bug your local bartender to put the match on with sound. This is one you won’t want to miss.