This is Day 1 of 22 for the Bandwagoner’s Guide to Pitt Volleyball, as I take you all the way through the NCAA tournament.

My name is James Santelli, washed-up sports journalist and washed-down local TV news producer. If you haven’t subscribed already, GET. ON. IT.

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LET’S GET SELECTIVE!

The selection show, revealing teams in the bracket one by one, will air at 8:30 PM Eastern tonight on ESPNU.

Actually, it will air after the conclusion of the men’s basketball game between Providence and Pepperdine (Catholics vs. Church of Christ - Whose doctrine will emerge victorious?!), which tips off just after 6:30 PM Eastern.

Last year, another basketball game ran long and delayed the Volleyball Selection Show. Fans took it in stride.

WHAT ODD WRINKLES SHOULD I KNOW?

The tournament is pretty similar to the NCAA Basketball Tournament:

• 64 teams
• 32 automatic qualifiers (conference champions) and 32 at-large teams
• Single-elimination bracket
• A weekend of sub-regionals around the country, then a weekend of regionals, then a “final four” at a pre-determined site

But the seeding is not like March Madness, where every team gets a 1-16 seed. Only the Top 16 overall teams are seeded, and the rest are unseeded.

Those Top 16 teams will host the sub-regionals at their respective home venues, which Pitt did for the first time last year.

WHAT MATTERS FOR PITT?

Pitt has automatically qualified for the NCAAs by winning the ACC (going an undefeated 18-0 in the process), and the Panthers are certain to be a Top 16 seed to host the first two rounds.

Today is all about whether Pitt gets a Top 4 seed, giving them hosting rights for the sub-regionals *and* the regionals (think Sweet 16 and Elite 8).

If the committee seeds Pitt 1, 2, 3 or 4, the Panthers would have home-city advantage throughout the NCAA tournament, because PPG Paints Arena is hosting the “final four.”

SO WHAT ARE PITT’S CHANCES FOR TOP 4?

Pretty good! But not assured.

Pitt has been ranked #2 in the AVCA Coaches’ Poll for the last five weeks, but as last year’s committee chair put it:

“The AVCA rankings are not part of our selection criteria.”

Instead, the committee says it considers:

• Win-loss record
• Strength of schedule
• “Significant wins and losses”
• RPI (Rating Percentage Index)
• Head-to-head competition
• Results vs. common opponents
• And basically just being in the Big Ten or Pac-12

Since RPI is the only ranking system listed in the criteria (and its formula includes some of the other criteria like record and strength of schedule), it takes on a big role in the committee’s process.

Pitt will likely end up as the #3 or #4 team in the RPI. But in the last 10 years, being those RPI spots have been precarious positions for teams trying to make the committee’s Top 4.

Making the committee’s Top 4, by RPI, last 10 years:

• #1 RPI - Top 4 seed 100% of the time
• #2 RPI - Top 4 seed 100% of the time
• #3 RPI - Top 4 seed 70% of the time
• #4 RPI - Top 4 seed 60% of the time
• #5 RPI - Top 4 seed 50% of the time

If the committee’s history is any indication, the Top 2 RPI teams (Baylor and Texas) will get Top 4 seeds, while the next few teams (Stanford, Pitt and Wisconsin) will have to sweat it out.

PITT VS. STANFORD VS. WISCONSIN

Let’s grab some résumé information from each team.

#3 RPI STANFORD CARDINAL

• Pac-12 champion
• 24-4 record
• #14 strength of schedule
• Significant wins: #2 Texas, #6 Florida, #8 Nebraska, #15 Penn State, #22 Utah (x2)
• Significant loss: #27 UCLA
• Record vs. common opponents with Pitt: 6-0
• Record vs. common opponents with Wisconsin: 2-2

#4 RPI PITT PANTHERS

• ACC Champion
• 29-1 record
• #42 strength of schedule
• Significant wins: #15 Penn State, #22 Utah, #23 Cincinnati
• Significant losses: None outside Top 25
• Record vs. common opponents with Stanford: 5-1
• Record vs. common opponents with Wisconsin: 6-1

#5 RPI WISCONSIN BADGERS

• Big Ten Champion
• 22-6 record
• #2 strength of schedule
• Significant wins: #8 Nebraska (x2), #14 Minnesota (x2), #15 Penn State, #18 Purdue
• Significant loss: #69 Ohio State
• Record vs. common opponents with Stanford: 5-3
• Record vs. common opponents with Pitt: 4-2

Okay, that’s the long of it.

Here’s the short of it: I think Stanford gets the #3 seed and Pitt gets the #4 seed above Wisconsin, even with the stark difference in strength of schedule between the Big Ten and ACC.

Pitt has just one loss to Wisconsin’s six.

Pitt swept Ohio State at PPG Paints Arena, and Wisconsin lost to Ohio State in four sets.

Pitt swept Penn State in Happy Valley, and Wisconsin lost there in five sets.

But there is one quote that is haunting me, and it should haunt all Pitt fans…

Last year, Pitt finished #7 in the RPI, but the committee seeded the Panthers #12. Committee chair Carrie Coll explained the discrepancy:

"Pitt didn't have any Top 10 wins. And they only had two in the Top 25. And those Top 10 wins, when we're doing the seeds, are something that we give a little premium to in the process. And that’s why they ended up where they did.”

Pitt beefed up its schedule this year, but if ACC rival Louisville doesn’t end up in the RPI Top 25, Wisconsin will have a significant advantage in both Top 10 wins (2 for Wisconsin, 0 for Pitt) and Top 25 wins (6 for Wisconsin, 3 for Pitt).

While I would wager on Pitt to get a Top 4 seed and stay in Pittsburgh throughout the tournament, I can’t guarantee it. The last ACC team to finish with such a high RPI was Florida State in 2014 — #3 RPI, #6 overall seed. The committee will do what it wants.

The difference between Pitt staying home through December and Pitt having to travel to Madison will be a huge one for the Panthers’ National Championship hopes.

I’ll be biting my nails right along with you.

P.S. Last year the NCAA revealed the Top 4 seeds a half-hour before the show.

So I’ll be turning on notifications for the @NCAAVolleyball account tomorrow.

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